Predicting the Future

Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future – Kim Preshoff | TED-Ed.

 

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Why is This Population Pyramid So Weird?

Killing Women or Importing Men? | Musings from the Chiefio.

After seeing the really skewed population pyramids of a couple Gulf States in class presentations this morning, I was really curious about why they were so not-normal.   So I Googled it.  According to this blog, its “Guest Workers”, or temporary immigrants, that are causing the spike in working-age men.

Betting its not a very nice life, since its mostly men, with no family in the country.  And the family back home in India, or Pakistan, or the Philippines is probably not happy either, except that they’re getting a little money from the remittances sent home to them.

Up Next – Yemen

via Yemen police massacre 45 protesters | World news | The Guardian

At least 45 people were killed and hundreds of others wounded as security forces and plainclothes government loyalists opened fire on protesters trying to march through the capital, Sana’a.

The youngest and poorest of the Arab world, the country is being racked by protests just like Egypt and Libya.  At the center is Sana’a University, where over 100,000 people marched today after Friday prayers.  It seemed to be a mostly peaceful march, until soldiers and plainclothes police opened fire.

Yemen has a population of  24 million, and a growth rate of 2.6%.   Its GNI PPP per capita is 2,340.  The dictator has been in power for over 3 decades, and is not likely to be moved by protesters.

The intensification of force used against demonstrators has led to concern that protesters will retaliate, threatening the possibility of a broad war that could engulf the country.

“In Yemen, violence is almost always met with more violence. If the regime does not stop these crackdowns immediately then we will soon find ourselves in the throngs of a bloody civil war,” said Mohammed al-Faqih, professor of politics at Sana’a University.

Continuing Trouble in Côte d’Ivoire

via BBC News – Ivory Coast: Rebels take western town Zouan-Hounien.

Ivory Coast rebels fighting to oust President Laurent Gbagbo have taken control of a town in the west of the country, Mr Gbagbo’s forces confirm.

The rebels, who control the north of the country, seized the town of Zouan-Hounien in an overnight attack.

Witnesses say unrest has spread to the capital Yamoussoukro, and the UN has warned that the country is at risk of relapsing into civil war.

 

16 million people, half under the age of 15, in a country the size of New Mexico, with over 60 different ethnic groups – a recipe for disaster.

The country has 3 distinct regions – northern Sahel, southwestern forest, and southeastern lagoons.  Once upon a time, the Ivory Coast was a model of a stable African state, but the situation has deteriorated in the country that is the world’s leading producer of cocoa.  Since the troubles began after the election of Alassane Ouattara as president, exports have dropped.  Former President and loser of the election Laurent Gbagbo has refused to step down, and a stand-off has ensued.  UN forces are protecting the new president as fighting rages around the country.

Separately, the UN’s refugee agency says the number of civilians fleeing west to Liberia has surged.

“Until mid-week we were seeing around 100 people crossing the border daily. But over the past 24 hours alone, the numbers coming across have swollen to 5,000 people,” the agency said in a statement.

African leaders have urged Gbagbo to cede power to the winner, but they have not been successful in their requests.

What will happen next?  Most likely, another un-civil war in another African state.

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