Istanbul, Turkey : Image of the Day

Istanbul, Turkey : Image of the Day.

Istanbul has grown by more than 11 million people in the last 50 years, and the city has expanded to accommodate its new population.

NASA’s Image of the Day contrasts the city’s extent in 1975 with it’s current size.  A new bridge across the Bosporus strait opened in 1988 (the first was completed in 1975) and the city grew north east towards the newest bridge.

Istanbul is the only city to occupy two continents -Europe to the north, and Asia to the south.  It was founded in 330 CE, and served as a trading center and gateway between the 3 continents of the “Old World” for many centuries.

Immigrant Experience

this is the link to the article in the NYT that goes along with the video we watched today.

La Nina returns

via Drought Causes Mexico Food Shortages : Image of the Day.

The growing season of 2011 was not kind to the southern United States and northern Mexico. As racing fires, heat, and record-dry conditions in Texas claimed attention, crops were quietly failing across the border in northern Mexico.

The current La Nina, which is strengthening again, is probably to blame for the prolonged drought.  Mexico has begun food deliveries to  Tarahumara communities in the northern region of Mexico, which have hit hard by food shortages due to the drought.

The peaking La Nina will bring rain and storms to parts of North America, but here in Texas we have more drought to look forward to.

 

Polenta doesn’t explode

via Rioting in Romania: The battle of Bucharest | The Economist.

“POLENTA doesn’t explode” is the gnomic phrase Romanians use to describe the attitude of resigned acceptance typical to the country. But this weekend something snapped. Thousands of people took to the streets in Bucharest and 40 other towns, venting their anger at their leaders’ perceived incompetence in dealing with Romania’s economic crisis

Like other Eastern and southern European states, Romania is experiencing economic problems.  Many of their issues are due to the legacy of their Soviet-influenced history, including a lack of industry and major pollution problems.

Although Romania’s riots did not make the US news, they are making headlines in Europe, just another sign of growing economic problems for European Union members.

 

 

 

Here It Goes Again

via Exclusive: EU agrees to embargo on Iranian crude | Reuters.

(Reuters) – European governments have agreed in principle to ban imports of Iranian oil, EU diplomats said on Wednesday, dealing a blow to Tehran that crowns new Western sanctions months before an Iranian election.

If the deal is approved by the EU, Iran will be ‘between a rock and a hard place.’  Other customers of Iran, including China and India, will be able to force steep price discounts, leaving Iran in hard economic straits.  Already the price for foodstuff has soared in Iran, and the value of their currency is dropping.

The embargo will force Tehran to find other buyers for oil. EU countries buy about 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iran’s 2.6 million bpd in exports, making the bloc collectively the second largest market for Iranian crude after China.

Biggest trading partner China, driving a hard bargain, has cut its orders of Iranian oil by more than half this month.

The economic sanctions and the oil embargo are a result of Iran’s nuclear program.  Although Tehran claims it is only for peaceful purposes, many other nations believe they intend to develop nuclear weapons.  Talks aimed at allowing UN inspectors into the country to visit the program broke down a year ago.

The oil embargo has already caused the price of crude to rise, and any embargo will be implemented in stages, to prevent a shock to the market.

In response to the proposed embargo Iran has been threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, and on Tuesday they threatened to take unspecified action if a US carrier group sails back into the Persian Gulf.

Washington, which has a carrier strike group led by the USS John C Stennis in the Arabian Sea, brushed off that threat and said its navy would continue to sail the strait.

What will happen if Iran follows through on it’s threat?  How high will the price of oil go if the embargo takes place?  Where will Europe and China go for ‘replacement’ oil?

Closing the Strait of Hormuz?

via Iran Threatens to Block Oil in Reply to Sanctions – NYTimes.com.

WASHINGTON — A senior Iranian official on Tuesday delivered a sharp threat in response to economic sanctions being readied by the United States, saying his country would retaliate against any crackdown by blocking all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for transporting about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

Merely uttering the threat appeared to be part of an Iranian effort to demonstrate its ability to cause a spike in oil prices, thus slowing the United States economy, and to warn American trading partners that joining the new sanctions, which the Senate passed by a rare 100-0 vote, would come at a high cost.

The first sanctions against Iraq, in 2006, did nothing to slow their uranium enrichment program.  Although Iran claims the program is solely for peaceful purposes, Western nations are fearful of a ‘nuclear Iran.’  The new sanctions would hit India and China, as well as Europe, very hard, since they buy most of Iran’s oil.  Supposedly the slack could be picked up by Saudi Arabia, but many analysts don’t think that’s possible.  Undoubtedly the price of oil would rise.

Some economists question whether reducing Iran’s oil exports without moving the price of oil is feasible, even if the market is given signals about alternative supplies. Already, analysts at investment banks are warning of the possibility of rising gasoline prices in 2012, due to the new sanctions by the United States as well as complementary sanctions under consideration by the European Union.

Rising oil prices could set back the economic recovery, and cause more economic woes worldwide.  But an even worse outcome is possible – can Iran really block the Strait of Hormuz?  What will our response be if they try?

Bowling for Dollars

What explains this distribution?  What economic impacts will this have?

Correlation or Causation?

The proof is in the graph!

Correlation or Causation? – Businessweek.

Chokepoints and Oil Transport

After our lesson last week on chokepoints, I read this post today on the World Geography Blog.  It got me to thinking about how much oil goes through these places, so I Googled and found this:

World Oil Transit Chokepoints Energy Data, Statistics and Analysis – Oil, Gas, Electricity, Coal.

Chokepoints are narrow channels along widely used global sea routes, some so narrow that restrictions are placed on the size of vessel that can navigate through them. They are a critical part of global energy security due to the high volume of oil traded through their narrow straits.

Because the Panama locks are so small not much oil passes through the canal, but some straits are not much wider.  This is the Bosporus, on the way from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean.

The article, from the US Energy Information Administration (whoever has heard of them?) covers all the oil chokepoints worldwide, and discusses the implications of their potential closure.

Ho Chi Minh City

h/t to Environmental Geography

The theme of Movement, an elaborate ballet of traffic in the former Saigon, Vietnam